Macro matters: Global themes for 2023

The world economy enters the new year on shaky ground. The post-pandemic rebound is losing steam. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the geopolitical fallout is being felt across the globe. Inflation, rising interest rates and the strong US dollar are impacting countries in every region of the world. Geopolitical tensions mean that the global economy is fragmenting into a complex set of rules and relationships.

Forecasters see major advanced economies slowing or even contracting in 2023. A recession in the United States would unlikely be contained to North America. For now, the fortunes of emerging and frontier markets are divided between those who can benefit from the current macro environment – like commodity exporters - and those who can’t. The base case is the slowest global growth in 30 years – not counting the 2009 and 2020 recession years.

In this report, GC’s Global Macro team presents some of the key macro trends and policy developments that will shape 2023. The issues are not exhaustive and are meant to cover themes that present both risks and opportunities for corporates and investors.

The last section contains a selection of key macro and geopolitical events in 2023.

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